Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
